CFB Week #1
Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2009 4:32 am
JAG and I are going to Colorado to watch the red hot Rockies make a push for the wild card, hit the CU-CSU game on Sunday at Folsom Field and then basically drink beer and screw the rest of the time.
So I'll be fairly incommunicado over the weekend. Anyway, the lines have been out since the first week of August, a few of the softer lines have settled in to where the games are fairly unplayable but there is one game that is immensely playable and I will be making a rather large wager on the game.
LSU -17 over Washington. It opened at -15.5 and has crawled its way up to a key number but this game is still huge value. UW was the worst major conference team last season and while new coach Steve Sarkisian has improved their skill positions (with very green freshman), the lack of talent on defense and the o-line is glaring. The line should really be about 24. I like the reports I have heard about Jordan Jefferson so far and the Tigers are so superior size and speed wise to the Huskies in everyway, I cannot fathom how the score isn't 44-17 or something like that. Large play here.
The rest of the card:
UGA +180 on the ML line at OK St. A road dog to win outright on week one??? The SI cover jinx comes into play here. UGA was one of the more disappointing teams last season due to its young lines. Green catches everything. OK St had no defense last season has significant losses from that defense. Everyone will be excited about the new T Boone Pickens Stadium but the luster will wear off as I expect OK St to be this season's Clemson. I am also taking the 6.5 to cover myself.
Wake -2.5 over Baylor. Baylor is getting some serious preseason love. I don't see it. Wake is a well coached team, solid on the lines. This is the kind of game Jim Grobe excels at. Wake wins this one big.
Illinois -6.5 over Mizzou. Mizzou plays no defense, loses its top qb, top te, top rb and top receiver. Zook has been recruiting his ass off since he's been at Ill. This looks like easy cash.
VATech Alabama under 37.5--Very low total but there's a reason. I don't think Va Tech scores a TD in this game. Alabama will play it a little conservatively and put up a 24-6 win.
I wish I could find something playable on Thursday just to get some action but nothing really stands out. NC St-SC line is about right and I got no feel for the Ducks getting 5.5 vs, Boisie.
So I'll be fairly incommunicado over the weekend. Anyway, the lines have been out since the first week of August, a few of the softer lines have settled in to where the games are fairly unplayable but there is one game that is immensely playable and I will be making a rather large wager on the game.
LSU -17 over Washington. It opened at -15.5 and has crawled its way up to a key number but this game is still huge value. UW was the worst major conference team last season and while new coach Steve Sarkisian has improved their skill positions (with very green freshman), the lack of talent on defense and the o-line is glaring. The line should really be about 24. I like the reports I have heard about Jordan Jefferson so far and the Tigers are so superior size and speed wise to the Huskies in everyway, I cannot fathom how the score isn't 44-17 or something like that. Large play here.
The rest of the card:
UGA +180 on the ML line at OK St. A road dog to win outright on week one??? The SI cover jinx comes into play here. UGA was one of the more disappointing teams last season due to its young lines. Green catches everything. OK St had no defense last season has significant losses from that defense. Everyone will be excited about the new T Boone Pickens Stadium but the luster will wear off as I expect OK St to be this season's Clemson. I am also taking the 6.5 to cover myself.
Wake -2.5 over Baylor. Baylor is getting some serious preseason love. I don't see it. Wake is a well coached team, solid on the lines. This is the kind of game Jim Grobe excels at. Wake wins this one big.
Illinois -6.5 over Mizzou. Mizzou plays no defense, loses its top qb, top te, top rb and top receiver. Zook has been recruiting his ass off since he's been at Ill. This looks like easy cash.
VATech Alabama under 37.5--Very low total but there's a reason. I don't think Va Tech scores a TD in this game. Alabama will play it a little conservatively and put up a 24-6 win.
I wish I could find something playable on Thursday just to get some action but nothing really stands out. NC St-SC line is about right and I got no feel for the Ducks getting 5.5 vs, Boisie.